PLAYER INFORMATION

Random Item Odds & Probabilistic Content

Last updated: 2026-09-27

What counts as a random item

Everything on this page is decided by a random roll. This is how each kind is paid for:

• Bought with gems: claw machine pulls. Gems are the game's premium currency; you can buy them with real money or earn them by playing. The claw machine is the only random item that costs gems.
• Bought with real money, with a random element: Limited Pet Sale pets (you always get the pet shown, but its shiny chance and nature are random) and the Ballin Bundle (its Ballin Badger pet finds random items, and it includes hoard chest keys).
• Earned by playing: board bin rewards, sticker packs, the Bonus Wheel, Jackpot Frenzy, the Arcade, hoard chests, skins and the other features below. You cannot buy these directly, but the balls and coins you spend to play the board and the Arcade can be bought, so their odds are listed here too.

Every other store item, including gem, ball and coin packs, perks and the Emberflight Cape, has fixed contents.

All figures are base odds: what an account with no upgrades, pets or other boosts gets under the game's standard settings. Upgrades, pets, pet cards, pet items, artifacts, research and skins can change some of them, and where they do, the in-game odds screens show your own live numbers. Percentages are rounded, so a row or table can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.

Claw machine (pet pulls)

Each world has its own claw machine holding eight pets, and one pull always gives exactly one pet. A pull costs 200 gems on World 1, 300 on World 2, 400 on World 3, 500 on World 4 and 600 on World 5. On the World 2 to World 5 machines your first 50 paid pulls are 25% off (225, 300, 375 and 450 gems).

Worlds 1 to 4 share the chances in the first column; World 5's differ slightly and are shown in its own column.

• Mythic guarantee. Each machine counts your pulls since your last Mythic from that machine, free pulls included, and shows the count on its MYTHIC GUARANTEE bar. If 399 pulls in a row on a machine are not a Mythic, the 400th pull is that machine's Mythic. Hoard artifacts can shorten the 400 by up to 20% (to 320 pulls). There is no Epic or Legendary guarantee.
• What changes the odds. As your Pet Score grows, the combined chance of Rare, Epic, Legendary and Mythic pets is multiplied by ×1.1 up to ×2.0 (you can switch this off on the PET SCORE page), and some pets and pet items raise it further. Common and Uncommon pets shrink to make room. At ×2.0 on World 1, for example, the chances are Rare 29.99%, Epic 8.32%, Legendary 1.52% and Mythic 0.20%. The machine's DROP RATES page always shows your own current odds before you pull.
• Intro pulls. Your first free pull is always a Lucky Rabbit. Other intro pulls give one of the four World 1 starter pets (Lucky Rabbit, Piggy Banker, Silver Magpie or Bandit Raccoon), and a few intro task rewards name the pet you get.
• Pets that come from other places (limited, elusive, hoard chest and fossil pets) are never in any claw machine.
• Every pet you pull also rolls a shiny chance and a nature, described next.

Shiny pets and pet natures

Every pet you get, from any source (claw pulls, chests, the store, events and so on), has a 1 in 1,000 (0.10%) chance to be shiny, a cosmetic variant. Shiny chance boosts from pets, artifacts and other rewards multiply that base chance.

Regular and limited pets are also born with one of 13 natures, each equally likely (7.69%). One nature, Steady, is neutral. Each of the other twelve raises one job (mining on expeditions, forge speed at the Ball Factory, hoard chest speed or gate damage) by 15% and lowers a different one by 10%. Natures never affect the board. Elusive pets have no nature.

Store items with a random element

Limited Pet Sale

The store's weekly FIRE SALE offers one limited pet at a time (Coin Corgi, Token Turtle or Carnival Phoenix, in rotation), and each can be bought once per account. You always get the pet shown. Its shiny chance (0.10%) and its nature (one of 13, 7.69% each) are rolled when it is delivered, exactly as described above.

Ballin Bundle

The Ballin Bundle's contents are fixed: gems, balls, 10 hoard chest keys, permanent boosts and the Ballin Badger pet (which rolls the usual 0.10% shiny chance when delivered). Two parts involve chance:

• Hoard chest keys open your current hoard chest straight away. A key does not change what the chest holds; see Hoard chests.
• The Ballin Badger finds one item at a time while it is equipped: one find every 6 to 12 hours at level 1, speeding up to every 3 to 6 hours at level 100. The next find starts once you collect the current one.

A pack find is a Rainbow Sticker Pack instead 1 time in 100, which is why Blue and Magenta sit just under 9% and 5%.

Sticker packs

There are six pack tiers: Green, Yellow, Pink, Blue, Magenta and Rainbow. Every pack holds 3 stickers, each rolled on its own from the pack's row below. Within a star rarity, every sticker in the current season's albums is equally likely. 4★ and 5★ stickers can come up Gold, and a Gold result is Rainbow instead 1 time in 100. Packs open automatically as soon as you receive them.

• Guarantees. A Pink pack always has at least one 3★ or better, a Blue pack at least one 4★ or better, and a Magenta pack at least one 5★. If none of the three rolls meets the guarantee, one of the three stickers, picked at random, is rolled again using only the qualifying rarities of the same row. The last column includes this.
• Gold and Rainbow. The Gold columns include the 1-in-100 Rainbow results. In a Rainbow pack, for example, each sticker is a Gold 4★ 74.25%, Rainbow 4★ 0.75%, Gold 5★ 24.75% or Rainbow 5★ 0.25% of the time.
• What changes the odds. The star shop's HIGH-STAR LUCK row raises the 4★ and 5★ chances, and its GOLD LUCK row and the Gilder's Leaf artifact raise the Gold chance. A 3★ Sticker Fox can turn a sticker Gold, and the Sticker Cube pet can add a bonus sticker to a pack.
• Where packs come from. Board bins (chances under Board bins), the Bonus Wheel, Ballin Badger finds, and fixed rewards such as the store's free gift, Daily Quests chests and events.

Board bins

Balls you launch on the board land in one of seven bins: Grey, Bronze, Silver, Gold, Emerald, Ruby and Diamond. A landing in a Grey, Bronze, Silver or Gold bin can open a portal instead of paying: the ball is dropped again from a higher portal, which is how balls reach the richer bins. Emerald, Ruby and Diamond never open a portal.

Where a ball finishes

• World 2: while the Glacier Gate wall stands, it blocks the Gold, Emerald, Ruby and Diamond bins. Breaking it opens a breach for a limited number of balls, during which portals from Bronze and above drop balls through the Vault.
• World 3: portals only open for balls carrying pollen, which balls pick up from the garden plots on the pegs. A ball with full pollen can reach the cash-out portal, which drops it into Gold 24.00%, Emerald 66.00%, Ruby 10.00% or Diamond 0.0028% (1 in 35,714) of the time.
• World 4: launched balls have no portals. The whirlpool can grab a ball passing through it (5% for each peg it touches inside the whirlpool); half of grabbed balls are lost, and the rest are stored and can be launched again from the whirlpool with a push to the right (shown at the base push of one bin). Dive board balls use their own bin layout and portals (10%, 12.5%, 15% and 17.5% from Grey to Gold) and pay balls instead of the usual rewards.
• World 5: pumping pressure turns bins into better tiers, starting from the right, and heat raises portal chances. At 0% pressure every bin a ball can reach is Grey. At high heat, some balls melt in the lava before landing and pay nothing.

What each bin pays

Each landing pays exactly one reward from its bin's row. Gold ball and gem amounts are fixed (shown as ×N); coin amounts grow with your progress.

Red Dice only drop once you have broken gate 2, and Blue Dice once they are researched in the Research Hall. Until then, and after you have used a colour's Bonus Map runs for the day, that colour's share is spread over the bin's other rewards, which moves each of them by less than 0.1 percentage points.

Extra drops on each landing

The final landing of every ball (not a portal hop) also rolls these, separately from the bin's reward. They are the same on every world.

• Pet cards. Every final landing, in any bin, has a chance to drop a pet card: 1 in 20 (5.00%) on World 1, 1 in 25 (4.00%) on World 2, 1 in 30 (3.33%) on World 3 and 1 in 35 (2.86%) on Worlds 4 and 5. Each world has eight cards, matching its claw pets. When a card drops, each Common card is 26.35% likely, each Uncommon 15.81%, the Rare 7.90%, the Epic 3.95%, the Legendary 2.26% and the Mythic 1.58%.
• Ore. Every landing in a Grey to Ruby bin also pays that bin's ore. This is a fixed amount, not a roll: on World 1, 1 Tin, 1.25 Copper, 1.5 Silver, 2 Gold, 2.5 Verdite or 3 Crimsonite per landing before Ore Yield upgrades. Each world has its own six ores. The Diamond bin pays no ore.
• World 4 dive board. Sticker packs and time candy drop at a quarter of these chances, and dice and pet cards at half.
• What changes the odds. Upgrades, research, pets, pet cards, pet items, artifacts and skins can raise portal, gem, dice, pack, candy and card chances and shift balls toward better bins. The BUCKET RATES page shows your own live odds with all of them included.

Bonus Wheel

Every 200 portals on a world's board earn a free spin of that world's Bonus Wheel (it unlocks when you break gate 2). Spins cannot be bought. The chances are the same on every world; the prizes grow on later worlds.

The Void Warden pet and Jackpot Charm pet items make the Jackpot slice more likely, and some pets can double a prize or give a free extra spin.

Jackpot Frenzy

A ball landing in a surface Diamond bin, or the Bonus Wheel's Jackpot slice, starts Jackpot Frenzy. You start with a pot of 1,000 gold balls, 125 gems, 125 balls and some coins (each world after World 1 adds another 25% of these amounts) and play in rounds. Each round you choose a tilt (no tilt gives you 50 balls, left or right gives 40), and each ball lands in one of five buckets:

Each multiplier hit has a 5% chance to add +0.20× instead. Coin landings pay more on later worlds. After each round you can cash out (your pot times your multiplier) or spin the Fortune Wheel, which has 100 slices:

CONTINUE falls 3 points each round (never below 2%), PET rises 1 point each round (up to 29%), and END takes the rest. CONTINUE adds 0.5× to your multiplier and plays another round. PET gives you the Void Warden pet and plays another round. END loses the multiplier: you collect your pot at ×1. While a Void Warden is active, 2 END slices become CONTINUE.

The Arcade and MEGA WIN

The Arcade is a pinball machine played with coins: each launch costs 1,000 coins times your stake (×1 up to ×200, unlocked as you progress). Each ball lands in one of five bins:

A ★ opens the Shadow Door 65% of the time (1.15% per ball, about 1 in 87), paying a Candy Card: Candy tier 75%, Gold tier 18.75% or Cosmic tier 6.25% (1,000, 2,000 or 4,000 candy times your stake). The other 35% of ★ results (0.62% per ball, about 1 in 161) are a MEGA WIN: a mega ball drops into one prize bin. To keep specials from overlapping, a ★ that would come within 30 seconds of the last one is rolled as a normal bin instead.

• Ball prizes grow with the square root of your stake (±10%) and gem prizes more slowly: at ×1 the bins pay 40 or 200 balls and 20 or 100 gems; at ×200 about 509 to 622 or 2,546 to 3,111 balls and 98 or 490 gems.
• Standard pet items are the Coin Charm, Gold Tooth and Portal Compass. Legendary ones (stake ×10 and up) are the Lucky Penny, Crimson Die and Jackpot Charm. The Mythic one (stake ×100 and up) is the Echo Relic. Items within a group are equally likely. The item reel that plays afterwards only animates the result already rolled, and its spaces are not drawn to scale.
• Some pets and Marquee rewards raise these chances; the machine's ODDS & PAYOUTS sheet shows your live numbers.

Hoard chests

The hoard gives you one chest at a time. A chest opens over time, or at once with a chest key. Chests themselves are never sold. The type of each new chest, and what it holds:

• Every chest also rolls a gem jackpot at 1 in 10,000 (that chest's gems ×100), a pet item at 1% (one of 16, each equally likely), a bonus skill point at 5%, and that chest type's lockpick skin at 1 in 1,000.
• Artifact rolls are 2% each, one for each chest tier from Common up to the chest's own. A hit gives one artifact you do not own yet from that tier's group, each equally likely; if you own all of them, that roll gives nothing. The chance of at least one artifact from a chest is 2.00% (Common), 3.96% (Rare), 5.88% (Legendary), 7.76% (Mythic) or 9.61% (Champion).
• Tier Up. Tier Up upgrades from the merit shop, the shard shop and the skill tree (up to 25% in total) give each new chest that chance to be one type better. At 25% the chances become 48% Common, 31% Rare, 12.5% Legendary, 6.25% Mythic and 2.25% Champion.
• Other upgrades and artifacts raise loot amounts, the artifact chance (by up to 120%), the chance to roll a chest's artifacts a second time, and the bonus skill point chance. Keys never change what a chest holds.

Skins

Skins are never sold. Each source below rolls once each time it happens and can only give you a skin you do not own yet.

The four seasonal skins come only from events, and the five secret skins are earned by completing hidden tasks, not by chance. The 2× Prestige Points perk, a store purchase, doubles the Prestige Points a prestige pays and so doubles the Emerald Tycoon chance.

Dice and the Bonus Map

Red and Blue Dice drop from Gold, Emerald and Ruby bins (chances in the bin tables above). Each face of a die is equally likely. A Gold-bin die rolls 1 to 6 (Red) or 1 to 8 (Blue), an Emerald-bin die 2 to 6 or 2 to 8, and a Ruby-bin die 4 to 6 or 4 to 8. A Red 6 or a Blue 8 starts a Bonus Map run:

The Dice Imp pet can re-roll a miss. In the Bonus Map, balls fall into nine bins whose multipliers (×1, ×1, ×2, ×2, ×3, ×5, ×5, ×10 and ×20) are shuffled every run, and where each ball lands depends on your aim plus a random bounce. The Bonus Map pays balls only. Dice and Bonus Map runs cannot be bought, and a daily limit applies.

Daily Quests and MERITS

Daily Quests, which replaced the old quick wins, give you five tasks a day drawn from a fixed list, and their rewards are fixed: 25 gems and 50 balls per task, plus weekly chests at 50 quest points (300 balls and 100 gems), 100 points (600 balls, 150 gems and a Blue Sticker Pack) and 150 points (1,000 balls, 2,500 gold balls, a Magenta Sticker Pack and a hoard chest key). Only the contents of those packs are random; see Sticker packs.

MERITS, the hoard's challenge board, pays a fixed 10 Merit Shards for each merit you complete, which you spend on fixed upgrades in the MERIT SHOP. Nothing in MERITS is random.

Other random features

These are earned by playing and are never sold:

• Hoard Hunt (with the Dragon Hatchling): the prize type is balls 50%, gold balls 30% or gems 20%, and the three chests you choose from hold ×1, ×2 and ×3 of it in random order.
• Vinnie's Gamble in the Ticket Trove: a 10% chance to win Vinnie the Hamster; otherwise you get 5,000 gold balls.
• Chest Rush (during Cake Party events): the opening wheels add +1 ball 30%, +2 26%, +3 20%, +4 14% or +5 10%, and set a multiplier of ×1 35%, ×2 35%, ×3 20% or ×5 10%.
• The Arcade's side games: MINES hides 3 mines among 25 tiles, and the essence coin flip uses a fair coin.
• Boss raid chests, expedition finds and fossils, the Ball Grove, the aquarium and event minigames also have random results.

Where to see odds in the game

• Claw machine: MENU → CLAW MACHINE, then RATES next to the MYTHIC GUARANTEE bar opens DROP RATES, which shows every pet's chance per pull with your boosts included, the rarity totals and your shiny chance. The machine's PRIZE POOL list also shows each pet's chance.
• Board bins: the round i button on the board, beside the bonus bar, opens BUCKET RATES: where balls land, portal chances, dice chances, sticker pack and time candy drop chances, and what your pets and upgrades add.
• Hoard chests: the NEXT chest tile in the hoard opens CHESTS, with each chest type's chance, loot, and artifact and skill point chances.
• The Arcade: each bin's tip shows its chance, and the i on the MEGA WIN bin opens ODDS & PAYOUTS.
• Jackpot Frenzy: the Fortune Wheel shows its CONTINUE, PET and END chances before you spin.
• Bonus Wheel: each wedge is drawn in proportion to its chance.
• Skins: the SKINS menu lists every skin's source and chance.
• Sticker packs: packs open as soon as you receive them, so their odds are listed on this page and on the game wiki's Sticker Packs page (MENU → WIKI).
• More detail: the game wiki's Rates & Odds page (MENU → WIKI).

No real-money equivalency

Items obtained from randomized in-game content have no real-world monetary value, cannot be cashed out, and cannot be traded for real currency outside the Service. See Terms of Service §5.

Age restrictions

Ballin Tycoon is intended for players aged 13 and older (16 in the EEA). The presence of randomized purchasable content is one reason for this age gate.